Language Model Interpretability and Empirical Legal Studies
In: Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2023-69
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In: Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2023-69
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In: George Washington International Law Review, Forthcoming
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Working paper
In: Research & politics: R&P, Band 2, Heft 2, S. 205316801557041
ISSN: 2053-1680
In: Forthcoming in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A
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In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 37, Heft 9, S. 1889-1910
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 51, S. 50-63
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Virginia Public Law and Legal Theory Research Paper No. 2018-61
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In: Journal of Financial Stability, 2020
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In: PNAS nexus, Band 2, Heft 3
ISSN: 2752-6542
Abstract
Following the invasion of Ukraine, the USA, UK, and EU governments–among others–sanctioned oligarchs close to Putin. This approach has come under scrutiny, as evidence has emerged of the oligarchs' successful evasion of these punishments. To address this problem, we analyze the role of an overlooked but highly influential group: the secretive professional intermediaries who create and administer the oligarchs' offshore financial empires. Drawing on the Offshore Leaks Database provided by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), we examine the ties linking offshore expert advisors (lawyers, accountants, and other wealth management professionals) to ultra-high-net-worth individuals from four countries: Russia, China, the USA, and Hong Kong. We find that resulting nation-level "oligarch networks" share a scale-free structure characterized by a heterogeneity of heavy-tailed degree distributions of wealth managers; however, network topologies diverge across clients from democratic versus autocratic regimes. While generally robust, scale-free networks are fragile when targeted by attacks on highly connected nodes. Our "knock-out" experiments pinpoint this vulnerability to the small group of wealth managers themselves, suggesting that sanctioning these professional intermediaries may be more effective and efficient in disrupting dark finance flows than sanctions on their wealthy clients. This vulnerability is especially pronounced amongst Russian oligarchs, who concentrate their offshore business in a handful of boutique wealth management firms. The distinctive patterns we identify suggest a new approach to sanctions, focused on expert intermediaries to disrupt the finances and alliances of their wealthy clients. More generally, our research contributes to the larger body of work on complexity science and the structures of secrecy.